PRLog (Press Release) – May 04, 2011 – Net exports were a significant drag on Thailand's real GDP growth of 6.7% year-on-year in Q310. Although a surprise trade deficit in July was a key reason behind the slowdown, we note that the latest trade figures for October suggest that net exports could rebound in Q410. Going into 2011, we continue to expect relatively subdued real GDP growth of 3.6% compared with an expected 7.5% in 2010 due to expect bmw M5 specification ations of a slowdown in external demand.
The consumer outlook, however, bodes well for the transport sector. A record low unemployment rate of 0.9%, coupled with an improving political situation in Thailand will provide support for consumer spending, in our view. Thus, we reiterate our view that private consumption will remain resilient over the coming quarters. We are estimating private consumption grew by 6.5% in 2010 and will grow by 5.5% in 2011. This bodes well for imports of containerised goods which are driven by consumer demand, and must be freighted via road, rail or air to consumer centres.
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* 2011 Port of Bangkok tonnage throughput growth is forecast at 5.4%, and estimated to average 4.4% a year to 2015. * 2011 Port of Laem Chabang tonnage throughput growth forecast 8.1%, and to average 6.6% per annum to 2015. * 2011 air freight tonnes growth forecast 5.17%, and to average 4.59% per annum to 2015. * 2011 rail freight tonnage throughput growth forecast 8%, and to average 7% per annum to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Trans-Asian Railway Project To Link Asia With Europe
The Lao government expects to begin construction on the 300-mile (481km) railway, which would connect the country to neighbours Thailand and China, in April, according to state media. China is footing 70% of the US$7bn price. The train line is to act as a link for passengers and freight travelling to and from Kunming, the capital of China's Yunnan province.
RCL Expands Its Services
Thailand-based shipping company Regional Container Lines (RCL) introduced a new Asian container shipping service on March 1 2011 that will call at the ports of Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan. The new RPI (RCL Pakistan India) westbound service will visit at the Sri Lankan Port of Colombo every Tuesday on the way to Nhava Sheva in India's Mumbai Port, and Pakistan's Karachi Port as part of a fixed-day service. The eastbound service will also visit Colombo every Friday on the way to Malaysia's Port Klang and Singapore on a fixed-day service. The Colombo calls will be at the state-owned Jaya Container Terminal.
Risks To Outlook
On the upside, we expect Thailand to benefit from increasing intra-Asian trade with it's ASEAN-5 partners.
Our increasingly positive outlook for Thai domestic consumer demand also presents upside risks to our freight transport forecasts.
On the downside, any slowdown in Chinese and Indian demand would have a negative knock-on effect in the region.
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